Too Much Fear, Not Enough Hunger


Today is the end of September, and last Friday saw a lot of funds moving money around at the end of the month. I’ll assume that there will be some carry over of that change around tomorrow. For me though, things haven’t changed all that much from last week. Soybeans finished the week +12 cents and there is no signal to get out yet. I’m not even going to change my stop loss this week, as I’m happy with where it is at the moment. The coming week may have choppy waters as the news at the tail end of last week percolates through the market and it decides what it’s going to do.

Wheat is tantalising. I don’t know how much higher it’s going to go but the knowledge that due to my own mistakes I have lost out on the biggest move of the year is frustrating and infuriating. In short, I’m afraid of it clouding my judgement. Then there’s the fear, that just as I get in, it’ll reach its top and then start the slide down. In truth, it’s more likely that it’ll go up and then move sideways for a while before falling back down again.

As I look around the various commodities that I have been interested in and keeping an eye on for the last few months, I see that a few trends appear to have started, but again I’m feeling the fear. If you’ll forgive a metaphor. I feel like a hunter who’s been knocked up badly not so long ago, let’s say an elephant. I barely escaped with my life but now I’m back out on the plains and I’ve got a few animals within range. As I line up the sights, my eyes lose focus and I can’t pull the trigger. I can feel that some of these trends could be big movers in the months ahead, but I just can’t seem to get over the experience of being almost wiped out.

This fear is affecting my hunger for the markets as well. I’m comfortable with soybeans at the moment, that’s all that my trading diet consists of right now. I’m too afraid to branch out into other markets, due to this fear of my account getting wiped out and the idea that I’m too late to get in on these trends. I need to get out of this state of comfort and back into a mindset where I have the hunger and I can lose the fear. So that’s my little assignment for the week, to get back into the game and stop sitting on the sidelines.

Leave a Reply