Seesaw, Margery Daw


So much, for no surprises in the USDA’s grain stock report. Soybeans came in at a record 573 million bushels, well above estimates. Having read the report when it came out, I expected today to close well down. It did, all but reversing yesterday’s gains. Those extra 20 million bushels in the current stocks provide a little more leeway for next year’s inventories.Some analysts are indicating that today’s lower close was more to do with end-of-month profit-taking than anything else. That may well be true. The market made more leaps and bounds this week, so I would expect the usual profit taking to happen. In any case, I don’t see that the underlying fundamentals have changed. I note that China bought another 120,000 tons. Then again, Bloomberg is reporting that Palle Pedersen an “agronomist” at Iowa State is feeling very confident about this year’s crop for soybeans:

“The crop is going to be very good” and “Farmers are very happy with the yields they have been harvesting.”

This is part of my fascination with the markets, they are almost always so contradictory in nature. One day, they move up, the next they move down. (Unless it’s wheat it seems.) A simple idea such as the colour of grass is purple one day and pink the next, sometimes its even orange and blue at the same time. The bears and bulls sit on opposite sides of the seesaw, taunting each other:

Seesaw, Margery Daw,
Johnny shall have a new master.
He shall earn but a penny a day
Because he can’t work any faster.

Monday is a new week and I have no idea which way the market is going to go, except for wheat, it’ll probably go up.

Open Positions

Asset Contract Position Change
Soybeans November 2007 Long -17.62

Account Details

Account Balance: €271.48
Open Position P/L: €511.00
Account Position: €782.48
Overall P/L: -€1267.52

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